If you build it, they will come… for now.

By Jay Parsons, via Realpage.com

Follow the people. This is why you can’t look at supply alone when evaluating apartment markets. It’s supply AND demand. Not just supply. And when you look at the latest Census data on where people are going (and leaving), isn’t it remarkable how well it lines up with apartment construction trends?

The top 10 metro areas for population growth for 2023 are all located in the high-supply Sun Belt. Texas claimed four of the top spots (DFW, Houston, Austin, San Antonio), followed by Florida with three (Orlando, Tampa, Miami), and one each from Georgia (Atlanta), North Carolina (Charlotte) and Arizona (Phoenix). Other Sun Belt metros coming close to the top 10 included Jacksonville FL, Nashville TN, Lakeland FL, Raleigh NC and Charleston SC.

What do all of those metros have in common? Several things– including A LOT of apartment supply.

Huge supply (record levels in many cases) are causing short-term digestion headaches — with rising vacancy and falling rents. But the population growth trends rather obviously point to strong rebound down the road as supply inevitably dwindles or even normalizes. The demand tailwinds haven’t evaporated. They’ve moderated or normalized since the initial COVID boom, but they haven’t gone away and likely won’t any time soon.

On the flip side, the markets losing population are probably no surprises. All are low-supply markets, but also low-demand markets. This isn’t to say apartment investors can’t be successful in these metros (after all, real estate is always local, local, local), and many certainly are quite successful. But at a macro level, I’d be leery of overplaying the “low supply” story when it’s paired with a “low demand” story.

This is a big reason why many Wall Street pundits whiffed on their West Coast outperformance outlooks last year. They doubled down too heavily on the “low supply” story, overlooking the facts that 1) the supply numbers were still elevated relative to recent history in these markets and 2) the demand story was mostly lackluster. The “undersupply” story is more nuanced than many analysts want to admit.

BUT a handful of coastal markets did see solid population growth in 2023– led by Washington DC ranking 11th nationally. Boston saw decent growth, too. Not coincidentally, DC and Boston have been the most consistent coastal core apartment performers, too. Seattle saw some growth, too.

(As an aside: I’m not a fan of simple ratios like population-to-supply. They’re not especially useful or predictive, and this is why vacancy numbers don’t align with population change. You can lose population and still see vacancy hold steady or even tick down. That’s because of household dynamics. For example, one family may decide to move out of a unit they’ve shared with another family. On the flip side, two roommates may split up to get more individual space. So while population is important, don’t look at it in a vacuum.) But that said…

Follow the people.

hashtag#populationgrowth hashtag#multifamily hashtag#housing Activate to view larger image,

State of the Union : A review of 4 economic measures

Story via Chartr.co

State of the (economic) union

President Biden delivered a surprisingly fiery State of the Union address yesterday, as he ramps up efforts to secure a second term in office. But, politics aside, what is the current state of the economic union? Here are 4 datasets we’re watching:

1. Inflation. The Big I — the economic elephant in every room for the last 3 years is finally shrinking, with the latest BLS data showing that prices were up 3.1% in January, down substantially from the ~9% annual increases seen in mid-2022.
2. Housing affordability. As interest rates rose, so did mortgage rates. However, house prices in most towns and cities have continued to soar, leaving first-time buyers facing high borrowing costs and steep prices — combining for one of the least affordable housing markets in modern history.
3. Stocks. Repeat after me: stock markets are not the economy… but that doesn’t mean they aren’t important. With the S&P 500 Index already climbing ~9% this year, millions of Americans might be feeling a little more secure in their savings or retirement plans (particularly if they own Nvidia stock).
4. Wages. Getting a 5% raise when inflation is hitting nearly double that figure left many of us still finding our larger paychecks don’t stretch as far as they once did. This was the case in 2021 and 2022 when wages struggled to keep up with inflation; however, as the rate of price increases began to slow last year, real hourly compensation finally turned positive.

With every passing month, the US economy appears to have increasingly pulled off the “soft-landing” that economists so desired when the Federal Reserve began its battle against inflation back in March 2022. Interestingly, the economy is no longer seen as the most important issue facing Americans, having been overtaken by immigration in the latest Gallup survey.

Realpage Webcast Replay – Market Intelligence 2023 – A Year in Review

This was an awesome webcast with such impactful and insightful research from Charles and Jay. 

Just a first class review by Realpage and a nice look into metrics for 2024.

https://www.realpage.com/webcasts/market-intelligence-year-in-review-2023/

Here are a few Realpage webcasts to choose from….

https://www.realpage.com/webcasts/

Thank you for the overwhelming and awesome Birthday wishes!

I hope you’re not frightened by how much you love me!!

Thank you again for your awesome Birthday wishes!

~ Sean Dreznin. – The Michael Scott of Commercial Real Estate

Demographic Shift, Investor Demand Reshaping Broward’s Apartment Market which shows similarities to Pinellas & Sarasota counties.

Pic credit – Jason Ludwig

PUBLISHED: JUL 17, 2017

Broward County multifamily housing and retail is undergoing a remarkable transformation as millennials and empty nesters are embracing urban living and young professionals seek similar experiences in suburban settings.

Having been built out for some time, much of the development in Broward has shifted from gated communities in western suburbs to multifamily housing in the urban core. About 4,000 condominium and apartment units in 20 blocks of Fort Lauderdale are set to come online in the next few years. 

Most of the new properties will resemble The Manor at Flagler Village, a mixed-use complex with residential units between 700 and 1,350 square feet. Rents range from $1,826 to$2,921 per month, about 30 percent higher than other nearby Class A buildings. The retail component, which is managed by Franklin Street, occupies the first floor and includes popular restaurants such as The Brass Tap, a craft brewery and Mellow Mushroom. Other service-based retailers range from a dentist office and fitness center to nail and hair salons. Nearby is a Fresh Market grocery store, a museum and parks. These amenities appeal to millennials. 

Young adults are looking for the best apartment spaces available regardless of unit size. Millennials care more about the fact that there’s a restaurant that they like in the lobby and Wi-Fi access throughout the entire building.

Their interests are altering the retail environment. Traditional retail is being replaced with service-oriented businesses where people can eat, have a drink, get their nails done or meet with a financial advisor.

Baby boomers want similar amenities. Many retirees are selling their four-bedroom houses in the suburbs and moving into an apartment where they don’t have to worry about things like lawn care. They can travel for pleasure or to visit grandchildren and want the freedom that comes from not owning a home. 

Thanks 

As part of the population move to the downtown core, more people are doing something unusual in South Florida: they are giving up their cars. With easy access to ride-sharing programs, consumers are taking the money budgeted for a vehicle and putting it toward rent instead. 

Broward municipalities such as Coral Springs and Plantation are following suit. An urban core is emerging in Coral Springs centered around a new downtown city hall that is under construction and over 300 apartments have been built. One is Bainbridge at Coral Springs, a five-story development with top-of-the-line amenities and rents $300-$700 a month less than in downtown Fort Lauderdale.

Properties like that attract young professionals. Millennials that have small children prefer neighborhoods with A-rated schools. While some couples have started families, they are still active and want to go out and socialize with their friends in places like those in downtown Fort Lauderdale.

They’re attracted to places such as Plantation Walk, which will go up on the site of the former Plantation Fashion Mall. Plans call for 700 rental apartments, 200,000 square feet of retail and a Class-A office tower. It appeals to young people who don’t want to travel 25-plus minutes to downtown Fort Lauderdale for work or fun. They would prefer a short walk or ride to their office and to have restaurants, bars and shopping close to home.

Multifamily investors have noticed the trend and started to grow their portfolios. Demand has so outstripped supply that an investor that would normally purchase a Class A or Class B property in an established area is going out of their comfort zone and buying a Class C property in an emerging neighborhood.

In Broward County, much of the buyer interest is coming from out-of-area investors working with local conduits. When Franklin Street recently marketed 167 units in downtown Plantation, we garnered about 17 written offers in two weeks, half of them from investors in New York, Philadelphia, New Jersey and Canada.

Outsiders are active in Florida for two reasons: The first is cap rate compression. Investors are seeing deals at 1 to 2 percent, and at zero percent in some cases in New York. Florida cap rates are also being squeezed, but they are still at 5-6 percent.
Second, Florida offers significant tax benefits. Out-of-state investors can re-capitalize their portfolios, sell their properties at a premium, come down here, and trump everybody at the local market level.

Today’s investors are not looking for immediate cash. Many are buying properties in neighborhoods that they think are up and coming. These buyers expect that their apartments or mixed-use buildings will be smack in the middle of a redevelopment play five to 10 years down the line. Given current trends, they are likely to be right.

 

Credit:

HERNANDO PEREZ AND DAN DRATCH

Source:

Southeast Real Estate Business

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Sarasota Sky Bar & Club to open Friday

The nightclub is slated to open in the Charles Ringling building on the east end of downtown this weekend.

by: Alex Mahadevan News Innovation Editor

Following some delays, downtown Sarasota’s newest nightclub will open this weekend in the historic Charles Ringling building.

Sarasota Sky Bar & Club will open at 4 p.m. Friday, Sept. 23, at 1927 Ringling Boulevard, which is adjacent to McCurdy’s Comedy Theatre. The club will feature 1960s-themed local band Robin and the Retros starting at 8 p.m., with a $5 cover to get in, said co-owner Tony Tannus.

Democracy, a reggae band, will play during the same hours Saturday.

“We have to mix it up,” said Tannus, who said he wants to focus on bringing in a mature crowd to the non-smoking building. “I’m not bringing in 20 year olds to bounce around.”

Tannus, who also co-owns the Meadows Village Pub & Grill, said the 7,000-square-foot size of the interior, and its history, attracted him to the property. Charles Ringling, John Ringling’s brother, constructed the two-story building in 1926.

“His office is still up there,” Tannus said.

 

Sean Dreznin & Jag Grewal from Ian Black Real Estate handled both sides of the transaction.

Sarasota Sky Bar & Club set to open

Nightclub will occupy Charles Ringling Building in downtown Sarasota.

Business partners, Tony and Marie Tannus, and Alex Hagush have leased the Charles Ringling Building for Sarasota Sky Bar & Club. The building on Ringling Blvd. in Sarasota was built in 1926 and has been home to several nightclubs over the years. // Photo via Ian Black Real Estate

By Wade Tatangelo
Ticket editor

Following a delay earlier this month, the owners of Sarasota Sky Bar & Club say they’re ready to open Friday with a performance by high-energy area dance band Robin & The Retros. Longtime local reggae group Democracy will be playing on Saturday.

Both performances are scheduled for 8 to 11 p.m. with doors opening at 4 p.m. There will be a $5 cover charge for each evening and management has stated that “at this time we will not be offering parking nor valet services to our patrons and will be advising them to utilize available public parking in the vicinity.”

Sarasota Sky Bar & Club, a smoke-free establishment aiming to attract people in their 30s to 60s, occupies the historic Charles Ringling Building in downtown Sarasota. 8 p.m. Friday and Saturday, Sarasota Sky Bar & Club, 1927 Ringling Blvd., Sarasota; $5;  sarasotasky.club

Sean Dreznin from Ian Black Real Estate handled both sides of the transaction.

Major League Football investor breaches contract, pulls $20M away from Lakewood Ranch-based league

BY MATT M. JOHNSON via Bradenton Herald

LAKEWOOD RANCH — Just days away from starting its free-agent player draft, Major League Football has disclosed that an investor pulled out of a contract that was supposed to bring $20 million to the fledgling league.

On Feb. 5, the Lakewood Ranch-based league filed a Form 8K/A with the Securities and Exchange Commission that details what league officials call a “breach” of the contract.

Frank Murtha, the league’s senior executive vice president, said the expected investment would have given Clairemont Private Investment Group, a Texas company, shares of stock in the league as well as first right of refusal to start an expansion franchise team in Missouri City, Texas.

In a press release issued Monday, league officials said they intend to pursue “legal remedies” against Clairemont and its chairman, Robert Queen Jr. Clairemont’s investment was to be used for the league’s operating expenses and would have been the first of several “other private and institutional investors scheduled to make contributions,” Murtha said.

Commenting on the issue Monday afternoon, Murtha struck a conciliatory tone about the contract dispute. He said league officials are still trying to ink an investment contract with Clairemont.

“He wasn’t the Lone Ranger,” he said of Queen. “We’re still in some discussions with him.”

Clairemont and the eight-team league entered into an initial $15 million securities purchase agreement in September. The parties later canceled that agreement, then inked a new one in October for $20 million. Clairemont officials could not be reached for comment Monday on the issue.

The failure to complete the contract and get Clairemont’s money on time will likely push the start of training camp and league play back a couple weeks, Murtha said. MLFB had initially planned to start its league games at the beginning of April.

Major League Football is scheduled to commence its free agent player draft on Feb. 15. The league has already received about 1,400 signed contracts from potential players looking to take to the field for one of the league’s teams. A set of drafts in January brought eight so-called “franchise players” to the league, as well as hundreds of other players in a territorial draft and a national draft. Each team in the league will start the preseason with 80 players on its roster.

SEC documents show that MLFB’s expenses greatly exceed revenue. In a third-quarter 2015 filing, the league reported bringing in $24,250 of revenue for the six months ended Oct. 31.

Operating expenses far outstripped income, totaling just over $1.8 million for the six-month period, documents show. Overall, MLFB recorded a $2.75 million net loss for the period with the SEC.

Outside of the deal with Clairemont, the league reported in its most recent quarterly filing two sales of stock totaling $150,000 in November.

Another hiccup in the league’s startup took place in December, when Jerry Vainisi, the league’s expected CEO, pulled out of the last stage of finalizing his employment contract. Murtha said Vainisi will likely remain involved with the league, but he did not specify how.

The league relocated its headquarters from Delaware to Lakewood Ranch last year. The Manatee County Commission approved a $200,000-plus incentive grant for MLFB, but the league must meet certain criteria such as creating jobs to get that money.

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Suncoast Half Marathon (13.1) 2014 results

Suncoast Half Marathon (13.1) 2014 results

The race was located in Lakewood Ranch, FL

Click here <—-==== for full results when they are available.

2 years after her death, woman gives family wonderful Christmas gift wish and its fulfilled by a strong and giving community!

2 years after her death, woman gives family wonderful Christmas gift wish and its fulfilled by a strong and giving community!

By Dylan Stableford, Yahoo News

A woman who died more than two years ago has given her family an incredible posthumous Christmas gift.

Brenda Schmitz, wife and mother of four, passed away in September 2011 after a battle with ovarian cancer. She was 46.

A month before she died, Schmitz wrote a letter addressed to a Des Moines, Iowa, radio station and instructed a friend to wait to mail it until her husband, David, had fallen in love again.

The station, Star 102.5, invited David, who recently got engaged, into the studio last week to share the letter with him.

“When you are in receipt of this letter, I will have already lost my battle to ovarian cancer,” Brenda wrote in the letter. “I am writing this letter to be sent to you by a dear friend who has instructions to do so when it was the time. I had to type this because I can hardly type anymore because of my shakiness. I told her once my loving husband David had moved on in his life and had met someone to share his life with again, to mail this letter to all of you at the station.”

…

Every year, the radio station solicits Christmas wish letters from listeners, picks the best and, with the help of sponsors, grants them.

Brenda’s first wish for “David’s new lifelong partner” was “a day, or better yet, a week of pampering, in all aspects of her life. … She deserves it.”

“Thank you,” she added. “I love you, whoever you are.”

Brenda also asked for a “magical trip” for the family of 8, and a “night out full of drinks, food and fun” for her cancer doctors at Mercy Medical Hospital.

Local businesses chipped in to help the station grant all of Brenda’s wishes, including the trip — a four-day vacation in Disney World.

For the complete story, CLICK HERE <—-=====